The number of different possible poker hands is found by counting the number of ways that 5 cards can be selected from 52 cards, where the order is not important. It is a combination, so we use `Cr^n`. A PhD in math is more of an obstacle to becoming a great poker player than a help. The amount of play required to become a winner is so big that there is no chance that anyone who wanted to become professional poker players through a mathematical understanding of the game would actually have time to do it. Understanding the mathematics of poker has made a dramatic difference in my poker game. This book is an attempt to help those who do not have a strong inclination to math or game theory but would really like to improve their poker skills. I designed this material in an attempt to not leave any reader behind. The next section shows how to derive the number of combinations of each poker hand in five card stud. There are four different ways to draw a royal flush (one for each suit). The highest card in a straight flush can be 5,6,7,8,9,10,Jack,Queen, or King.
What is Poker Combinatorics?
Combinatorics is the practice of breaking down ranges and counting individual combinations of hands. Generally we won't have enough time during a hand to assign our opponent a specific number of combinations – it's standard practice to think more generally about our opponents range and make estimates. For example we might think something like he has some weak top pairs and second pair type hands along with draws, but he doesn't have that many overpairs because he would have 3bet preflop. We'll refer to this as “category-based thinking”.
This kind of thought process is sufficient in most cases, and is also pretty much all the average human brain is capable of when ranges are very wide. We'd need to be some type of savant to assign our opponent an exact number of combinations at an early stage in the hand. However as the hand progresses, ranges get significantly narrower – to the point where on the river it may be possible to assign our opponent an exact number of combos before we make our decision.
Combinatorics can also be used for off-table analysis. While it is not feasible to list the exact number of flop combos someone has during an actual hand – it should be easy enough afterwards, especially if we use calculation software such as Flopzilla.Why use Poker Combinatorics?
Combinatorics can be used to increase the accuracy of our standard “category-based thinking”. Previously facing a large river bet we might think along the lines of he has some busted draws and some nutted type hands. With combinatorics we can instead think he has X combos of busted draws and Y combos of nutted hands.
Even if it's an early stage in the hand where it is impractical to count exact combos, having an understanding of how combinatorics works will allow us to assign weights to our “category-based thinking”. For example instead of thinking Essential Poker Math Pdf Download
he has some flush-draws, some top pairs, some underpairs, we can say he has hardly any flush-draws, an average amount of top pair hands, and a large amount of underpairs.Combinatorics will help us to increase accuracy of our standard 'category based thinking'
With the first type of “category-based thinking”, we could easily be forgiven for assuming that these three categories of hands represent roughly an equal portion of our opponents range. In the second example, we are not quite using full combinatorics, but our knowledge of combinatorics has allowed us to add weightings to our “category-based thinking”.Preflop Combinations
Let's start with an decent understanding of preflop distribution. This is generally an important step in being able to add weightings to postflop rangeswithout needing to calculate specific combos.
There are 1326 possible combinations of starting hands. These are not distributed evenly between the different hand categories however. Some hands are simply more likely to be dealt than others.
We can divide a hole-cards grid into 3 sections.
Creating a diagonal line from the top left of the grid to the bottom right of the grid are the pocket pairs. There are 6 possible combinations of every pocket pair. There are 13 different pocket pairs ranging from 22 - AA. Therefore the total number of pocket-pair combos is (13*6) = 78
Just by looking at the grid we could easily assume that there is an equal amount of hands either side of that diagonal line. It's true that there are equal amount of hand types, but there is quite a considerable difference between the number of combos. To the right of the diagonal line are the suited combos, and there are way less of these than the offsuit combos which are to the left of the diagonal line. Each type of hand has 12 offsuit combos and 4 suited combos. This means there are 3 times as many offsuit (non-pair) hands compared to suited.
In total there are 154 hand types which are not pocket-pairs. 78 of these are suited, 78 of these are offsuit.
Since there are 4 combos of every suited hand this results in (78 * 4) 312 combos.
The 12 combos of every offsuit hand result in (78 * 12) 936 combos.
So to summarise:Suited Combos 312
----------------------------------
Essential Poker Math Book Review
Postflop Poker Combinations
Let's imagine we are now in a situation where we feel our opponent's range is narrow enough to assign a specific amount of combinations rather than estimate the weightings.
Let's look at some examples.
Example 1 - The board texture is A5272. How many combinations of A-K does our opponent have?
We know he started off with 16 combos of AK, 12 offsuit, and 4 suited. However, he can't have 16 combos of this hand any more since there is already an Ace out there. To calculate the available combinations we multiply the number of available remaining cards which make up the hand. There are 3 Aces left in the deck and 4 Kings. 3 * 4 = 12. There are 12 combos of AK.
Example 2 - The board texture is A527K. How many combinations of A-K does our opponent have?
This should be pretty simple if the last example made sense. There are 3 available Aces, and 3 available Kings. 3 * 3 = 9. 7 of these would be offsuit combos and 2 of them would be suited combos. Our opponent cannot hold AK or AK since the A and A are already on the board.
Example 3 - The board texture is K72. How many combinations of sets does our opponent have?
For pocket pairs we need to use a slightly different method. First count how many available cards there are to make the pocket pairs. For example, to make a set of Sevens there are 3 Sevens remaining in the deck. The formula (where X is number of available cards is) (X * (X-1)) / 2
It looks complicated but is actually very simple. There are 3 cards. We multiply it by 2 to make 6. Then we divide by 2. There are 3 combos of each set (Kings, Sevens, Twos). There are 3 possible sets meaning there are 9 combos of sets in total here
So if we wanted to know how many possible combinations of 88 there are here (no set), we know there are 4 available cards so we can calculate (4*3)/2 = 6 combos.It looks complicated but is actually very simple. There are 3 cards. We multiply it by 2 to make 6. Then we divide by 2. There are 3 combos of each set (Kings, Sevens, Twos).
Or imagine there are 2 sevens out there and we want to know how often someone has made Quads. (2*1)/2 = 1 combo. Multiply the part in brackets first and then divide by two.
Some calculations are a little more complex. For example working out how many flush-draws opponent has. On a two-tone board we know he will have 1 combo of each suited hand that can make a flush-draw. But we obviously don't just count all possible flush-draws; we have to think about which of these are actually in his range. So in most situations we can discount holdings like 27.Final Note on Poker Combinatorics
Keep in mind that combinatorics can not be used independent of frequency. A common mistake when first beginning to look at combinatorics is simply looking at which hands opponent might have rather than the frequency with which he continues.
For example, imagine a typical bluff-catch situation where we want to work out whether opponent has enough bluffs for us to make a profitable call. We might calculate that he has 100 combinations of possible bluffs and only 10 combinations of possible value-hands. Easy call? Not necessarily.A common mistake when first beginning to look at combinatorics is simply looking at which hands opponent might have rather than the frequency with which he continues.
We can't just assume he is firing all of his bluffs. Some guys just never bluff – so just because they reach the river with a ton of possible bluff combos does not automatically mean that calling down is correct. We calculate the possible bluff combos and then we assign a bluff frequency before making our decision.Is poker a game of skill or chance? This question has been discussed and
argued in many places and is the center of the arguments for and against
legalizing Texas holdem and other forms of poker in many places, including
online.
argued in many places and is the center of the arguments for and against
legalizing Texas holdem and other forms of poker in many places, including
online.
The answer to this question boils down to the mathematics behind the game. If
the math shows one player can win more often than another based on the
mathematical and statistical truths about Texas holdem then the game is one of
skill.
the math shows one player can win more often than another based on the
mathematical and statistical truths about Texas holdem then the game is one of
skill.
Let’s look at a few facts before moving on.
- Fact 1Texas holdem is played with a deck of 52 playing cards, consisting of
the same four suits, and 13 ranks in every deck. You know each deck has an
ace of spades, and ace of hearts, an ace of clubs, and an ace of diamonds.
The same is true for kings, queens, and all of the ranks down through twos. - Fact 2Over a long period of time each player will play from each position at
the table an equal number of times. In other words, each player will play in
the small blind, the big blind, under the gun, on the button, etc. an equal
number of times as other players. If you take two individual players it
might not be 100% the same, but it’ll be close. When you take thousands of
players and average their times played in each position mathematically they
each play the different positions an equal number of times. - Fact 3The rules in each game are the same for every player at the table.
- Fact 4The player that starts the hand with a better two card starting hand
wins the hand more often than the player with a worse hand. This has been
proven by computer simulations that run millions of hands and consider every
possible outcome.
Why Is This Important?
The reason all of this is important to Texas holdem players is that you can
use all of this math to help you win.
use all of this math to help you win.
Though there are thousands of possibilities on every hand of Texas holdem,
you can use the fact that everything is based on a set of 52 cards to predict
outcomes and possibilities at every stage for every hand.
Here’s an Exampleyou can use the fact that everything is based on a set of 52 cards to predict
outcomes and possibilities at every stage for every hand.
If you start the hand with two aces as your hole cards, you know that the
remaining 50 cards in the deck only have two aces. The remaining 48 cards
consist of four of each rank below the aces. At the beginning of the hand you
don’t know where any of the other cards are located, but as the hand progresses
you learn where some of them are located.
remaining 50 cards in the deck only have two aces. The remaining 48 cards
consist of four of each rank below the aces. At the beginning of the hand you
don’t know where any of the other cards are located, but as the hand progresses
you learn where some of them are located.
Continuing with the example, if the flop has an ace and two fours, you hold a
full house. You also know the only hand at this time that can beat you is four
fours. Because two fours are on the flop, the number of times a single opponent
has the other two fours is 1 in 1,326 hands. This is such a small percentage of
the time that you always play the full house in this example as if it’s the best
hand.
full house. You also know the only hand at this time that can beat you is four
fours. Because two fours are on the flop, the number of times a single opponent
has the other two fours is 1 in 1,326 hands. This is such a small percentage of
the time that you always play the full house in this example as if it’s the best
hand.
How do we know the number of times the opponent has the other two fours?
Because two fours are on the flop, let’s say the four of hearts and the four
of diamonds, so you know that your opponent has to have the four of clubs and
the four of spades. The chances of the first card in their hand being one of
these two cards are two out of 52. If they get one of them as the first card
that leaves the single other card they need out of 51 unseen cards, or one out
of 51.
of diamonds, so you know that your opponent has to have the four of clubs and
the four of spades. The chances of the first card in their hand being one of
these two cards are two out of 52. If they get one of them as the first card
that leaves the single other card they need out of 51 unseen cards, or one out
of 51.
You multiply two over 52 times one over 51 and this gives us the 1 out of
1,326 hands.
1,326 hands.
Basic Texas Holdem Math
Some of the math we discuss on this page can be complicated and the truth is
some players won’t be able to use it all. But that doesn’t mean they can’t be
winning Texas holdem players. The math covered in this section forms the
building blocks for the advanced math covered lower on the page.
some players won’t be able to use it all. But that doesn’t mean they can’t be
winning Texas holdem players. The math covered in this section forms the
building blocks for the advanced math covered lower on the page.
Every Texas holdem player can use the basic math included in this section,
and if you aren’t using it yet you need to start right away.
and if you aren’t using it yet you need to start right away.
Starting Hands
At the most basic level of Texas holdem everything starts with your starting
hand. As we mentioned above, mathematically the player who stars the hand with
the better starting hand wins more than the player with the inferior hand.
hand. As we mentioned above, mathematically the player who stars the hand with
the better starting hand wins more than the player with the inferior hand.
This means the first math lesson you need to learn and start using is to play
better starting hand on average than your opponents. While this can get
complicated, especially in games with many multi way pots, you still need to
learn how to play better starting hands.
better starting hand on average than your opponents. While this can get
complicated, especially in games with many multi way pots, you still need to
learn how to play better starting hands.
If you take nothing else from this page, if you simply tighten up your
starting hand selection it’ll immediately improve your results.
starting hand selection it’ll immediately improve your results.
Position
It’s difficult to directly relate position to mathematics, but the main thin
to know is the later your position, the better your chances to play in a
positive expectation situation. We’ll discuss expectation in a later section,
but it’s important to understand that having position on an opponent is a strong
advantage that equates to a mathematical advantage over the long run.
to know is the later your position, the better your chances to play in a
positive expectation situation. We’ll discuss expectation in a later section,
but it’s important to understand that having position on an opponent is a strong
advantage that equates to a mathematical advantage over the long run.
Outs
One of the most important skills Texas holdem players need to develop is the
ability to determine the number of outs, or cards remaining in the deck that can
complete the hand they’re drawing to. You use this information to determine your
chances of winning the hand as well as to determine the pot odds. Pot odds are
discussed in the next section, but they show you whether or not a call is
profitable in the long run when an opponent makes a bet.
ability to determine the number of outs, or cards remaining in the deck that can
complete the hand they’re drawing to. You use this information to determine your
chances of winning the hand as well as to determine the pot odds. Pot odds are
discussed in the next section, but they show you whether or not a call is
profitable in the long run when an opponent makes a bet.
We can determine how many outs you have because we know what’s in the deck
and what we need to improve our hand. If you have a king, queen, jack, and 10
after the turn you know any of the four aces or four nines complete your
straight.
and what we need to improve our hand. If you have a king, queen, jack, and 10
after the turn you know any of the four aces or four nines complete your
straight.
This means you have eight outs. You’ve seen six cards, so the deck has 46
cards remaining in it. Don’t make the mistake of thinking about the cards that
have been folded or your opponent holds. You haven’t seen these cards so any
unseen card is still considered a possible river card.
cards remaining in it. Don’t make the mistake of thinking about the cards that
have been folded or your opponent holds. You haven’t seen these cards so any
unseen card is still considered a possible river card.
In other words, on average, if you play this situation 46 times you’re going
to complete your straight eight times and not complete it 38 times.
to complete your straight eight times and not complete it 38 times.
You should always consider how many outs you have in every situation while
playing. B knowing your outs you have another piece of information that can help
you make profitable decisions throughout the hand.
playing. B knowing your outs you have another piece of information that can help
you make profitable decisions throughout the hand.
Pot Odds
The next question many players ask after they learn how to determine their
out sis how they can use this information to make more money at the table. This
is where pot odds come into play.
out sis how they can use this information to make more money at the table. This
is where pot odds come into play.
Pot odds are simply a ratio or comparison between the money in the pot and
the chances you have of completing your hand. You use this ratio to determine if
a call or fold is the best play based on the information you currently have.
the chances you have of completing your hand. You use this ratio to determine if
a call or fold is the best play based on the information you currently have.
If you consider the example in the last section concerning the straight draw,
you know that the deck holds eight cards that complete your straight and 38
cards that don’t. This creates a ratio of 38 to 8, which reduces to 4.75 to 1.
You reduce by dividing 38 by 8.
you know that the deck holds eight cards that complete your straight and 38
cards that don’t. This creates a ratio of 38 to 8, which reduces to 4.75 to 1.
You reduce by dividing 38 by 8.
The way you use this ratio is by comparing it to the amount of money in the
pot and how much you have to put into the pot. If the pot odds are in your favor
it’s profitable to call and if not you should fold.
Examplepot and how much you have to put into the pot. If the pot odds are in your favor
it’s profitable to call and if not you should fold.
If the pot has $100 in it and you have to make a $10 call the pot is offering
10 to 1 odds. You determine this the same way as above, by dividing $100 by $10.
10 to 1 odds. You determine this the same way as above, by dividing $100 by $10.
If you’re in the situation described above of drawing to a straight on the
river you can see that a call is correct because the pot is offering 10 to 1 and
you have a 4.75 to 1 chance of winning.
river you can see that a call is correct because the pot is offering 10 to 1 and
you have a 4.75 to 1 chance of winning.
On the other hand of the pot has $100 in it and you have to put $40 in to see
the river the pot is only offering 2.5 to 1 odds and your chances of hitting
your straight are still 4.75 to 1 so you should fold.
the river the pot is only offering 2.5 to 1 odds and your chances of hitting
your straight are still 4.75 to 1 so you should fold.
Pot odds can get complicated, especially when you start considering how they
work when you’re determining the correct play with both the turn and river to
come.
work when you’re determining the correct play with both the turn and river to
come.
Essential Poker Math Expanded Edition
Fortunately charts are available to quickly check the odds of hitting your
hand based on how many outs you have. We’ve included one next so all you have to
do is determine your outs and compute the odds the pot is offering. Then compare
the two to see if it’s profitable to call or fold.
hand based on how many outs you have. We’ve included one next so all you have to
do is determine your outs and compute the odds the pot is offering. Then compare
the two to see if it’s profitable to call or fold.
Number of Outs | Turn & River Combined | River Only |
---|---|---|
1 | 22.26 to 1 | 45 to 1 |
2 | 10.9 to 1 | 22 to 1 |
3 | 7 to 1 | 14.33 to 1 |
4 | 5.06 to 1 | 10.5 to 1 |
5 | 3.93 to 1 | 8.2 to 1 |
6 | 3.15 to 1 | 6.67 to 1 |
7 | 2.6 to 1 | 5.57 to 1 |
8 | 2.17 to 1 | 4.75 to 1 |
9 | 1.86 to 1 | 4.11 to 1 |
10 | 1.6 to 1 | 3.6 to 1 |
11 | 1.4 to 1 | 3.18 to 1 |
12 | 1.22 to 1 | 2.83 to 1 |
13 | 1.08 to 1 | 2.54 to 1 |
14 | 0.95 to 1 | 2.29 to 1 |
15 | 0.85 to 1 | 2.07 to 1 |
16 | 0.75 to 1 | 1.88 to 1 |
17 | 0.67 to 1 | 1.71 to 1 |
18 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.56 to 1 |
19 | 0.54 to 1 | 1.42 to 1 |
20 | 0.48 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
Expand | Shrink
When you’re determining your pot odds for the turn and river you determine
them on the turn and then if you don’t hit your draw you determine them again on
the river. This often happens, especially in limit Texas holdem. But if an
opponent moves all in on the turn you simply use the turn and river combined
odds in your decision.
them on the turn and then if you don’t hit your draw you determine them again on
the river. This often happens, especially in limit Texas holdem. But if an
opponent moves all in on the turn you simply use the turn and river combined
odds in your decision.
Advanced Texas Holdem Math
Many beginning Texas holdem players look at a discussion about expectation
and instantly decide it’s too hard and ignore it. When they do this they
severely hurt their long term chances at being a profitable player.
and instantly decide it’s too hard and ignore it. When they do this they
severely hurt their long term chances at being a profitable player.
We’ve broken down how to look at situations while playing poker in a simple
manner that almost any player can use below. Do yourself a favor and go into
this with an open mind. Once you understand it at a simple level you can learn
more as you gain experience. You may be surprised at just how easy it gets to
determine positive and negative expectation with a little practice.
manner that almost any player can use below. Do yourself a favor and go into
this with an open mind. Once you understand it at a simple level you can learn
more as you gain experience. You may be surprised at just how easy it gets to
determine positive and negative expectation with a little practice.
Expectation
Expectation is what the average outcome will be if you play the same
situation hundreds or thousands of times. Once you determine the expectation you
know if a situation offers positive or negative results on average.
situation hundreds or thousands of times. Once you determine the expectation you
know if a situation offers positive or negative results on average.
Your goal as a Texas holdem player is to play in as many positive expectation
situations as possible and avoid as many negative expectation situations as
possible.
situations as possible and avoid as many negative expectation situations as
possible.
You need to understand that expectation is something that can be applied to
almost any situation in poker, but it’s also subjective in many areas.
almost any situation in poker, but it’s also subjective in many areas.
- If you play at a table where every opponent is better than you in the long
run you’re going to lose money. This is a negative expectation situation. - If you play at a table where every opponent is a worse
player than you it’s a positive expectation situation because you’re going to
win in the long run.
The problem is determining whether a situation is positive or negative
expectation when you sit down at a table with some players who are better than
you and some who are worse.
expectation when you sit down at a table with some players who are better than
you and some who are worse.
You can find many situations where it’s easier to determine expectation
mathematically, and we’ll teach you how to do this now. While this may seem
overly complicated at first, especially to do at the table while playing, you
don’t need to know exactly how negative or positive a situation is, you only
need to know if it’s positive or negative.
mathematically, and we’ll teach you how to do this now. While this may seem
overly complicated at first, especially to do at the table while playing, you
don’t need to know exactly how negative or positive a situation is, you only
need to know if it’s positive or negative.
Great local casino run by the state casino organisation directly belonging to the Ministerie of Justice. I consider this a mid-size casino. All tables and most games are present. Would be nice if there was slightly more people on some tables. On other tables the play is a bit slow. Holland Casino Valkenburg, Valkenburg: See 27 unbiased reviews of Holland Casino Valkenburg, rated 4 of 5 on Tripadvisor and ranked #59 of 125 restaurants in Valkenburg.
Once you determine if a situation is positive expectation or negative
expectation you simply remember the next time you’re in a similar situation.
Once you start determining expectation you’ll find that you learn mist
situations quickly and only have to think through an occasional situation at the
table.
expectation you simply remember the next time you’re in a similar situation.
Once you start determining expectation you’ll find that you learn mist
situations quickly and only have to think through an occasional situation at the
table.
The best way to see how to determine expectation is by running through a
couple examples.
couple examples.
Example 1
You’re facing a bet after the turn and you have four to a flush.
The pot had $400 in it and your opponent bet $100. You’re certain that if you
miss your flush draw you’ll lose and when you hit your flush draw you’ll win.
The pot had $400 in it and your opponent bet $100. You’re certain that if you
miss your flush draw you’ll lose and when you hit your flush draw you’ll win.
In order to see the river you have to call the $100 bet. When you lose you
lose $100, and when you win you get back $600. You get your $100 back plus the
$400 that was in the pot plus the $100 bet your opponent made.
lose $100, and when you win you get back $600. You get your $100 back plus the
$400 that was in the pot plus the $100 bet your opponent made.
Many players claim that part of the money already in the pot is theirs, but
once you put money into the pot it isn’t yours. The only way to get it back is
to win the pot. So you can’t consider it in any other way when determining
expectation.
once you put money into the pot it isn’t yours. The only way to get it back is
to win the pot. So you can’t consider it in any other way when determining
expectation.
The way to see if it’s positive or negative to call is to determine what will
happen on average if you play the same situation many times. Most players find
it easiest to determine by pretending to play the hand 100 times.
happen on average if you play the same situation many times. Most players find
it easiest to determine by pretending to play the hand 100 times.
In this example you’re going to hit your flush 9 out of 46 times. This means
19.56% of the time you’re going to win and 80.44% of the time you’re going to
lose. To make this simple we’ll round these numbers off to 20% and 80%.
19.56% of the time you’re going to win and 80.44% of the time you’re going to
lose. To make this simple we’ll round these numbers off to 20% and 80%.
If you have to put $100 in the pot 100 times your total investment is
$10,000. The 80 times you lose you get nothing back. The 20 times you win you
get $600. 20 times $600 is $12,000. When you take the $12,000 you win and
subtract the $10,000 you lose when you play the situation 100 times, you see
that you win $2,000 overall.
$10,000. The 80 times you lose you get nothing back. The 20 times you win you
get $600. 20 times $600 is $12,000. When you take the $12,000 you win and
subtract the $10,000 you lose when you play the situation 100 times, you see
that you win $2,000 overall.
Essential Poker Math For No Limit Hold'em
To determine how much you win on average per hand simply divide the $2,000 by
100 to get a positive expectation of $20 per hand. This means that every time
you’re in this situation you’ll win on average $20.
100 to get a positive expectation of $20 per hand. This means that every time
you’re in this situation you’ll win on average $20.
The truth is you may win a little more because we’re ignoring the river.
Because you know you can’t win if you miss your flush, you always need to fold on
the river when you miss your draw. Every once in a while you may be able to
extract a small bet from your opponent on the river when you hit your flush,
increasing your average expectation. Sometimes it’s even correct for your
opponent to call on the river in this situation. See the next example to see
why.
Because you know you can’t win if you miss your flush, you always need to fold on
the river when you miss your draw. Every once in a while you may be able to
extract a small bet from your opponent on the river when you hit your flush,
increasing your average expectation. Sometimes it’s even correct for your
opponent to call on the river in this situation. See the next example to see
why.
Example 2
Let’s say you’re playing the same hand as above but you have a
straight and your opponent appears to be drawing to a flush. You’re on the
river, the pot has $600 in it, and the board has the third suited card hit on the
river.
straight and your opponent appears to be drawing to a flush. You’re on the
river, the pot has $600 in it, and the board has the third suited card hit on the
river.
If your opponent was drawing to the flush, they completed it and you’re going
to lose the hand. In this situation your opponent bets $20.
to lose the hand. In this situation your opponent bets $20.
In this situation you clearly have to call.
The reason you have to call is because you can’t know for certain your
opponent was drawing to the flush. They may be bluffing or have two pair or any
other number of hands that aren’t as good as your straight.
opponent was drawing to the flush. They may be bluffing or have two pair or any
other number of hands that aren’t as good as your straight.
Let’s look at the math behind this decision.
If you play the situation 100 times your total investment is $20 times 100,
or $2,000.
or $2,000.
When you win you get $640, consisting of the original $600 pot, your
opponent’s $20 bet, and your $20 call. If you win three hands you get back
$1,920 for a loss of $80, or 80 cents per hand.
opponent’s $20 bet, and your $20 call. If you win three hands you get back
$1,920 for a loss of $80, or 80 cents per hand.
If you win at least four times you’re in a positive expectation situation.
Four wins nets $2,560 for an overall win of $560, or $5.60 per hand.
Four wins nets $2,560 for an overall win of $560, or $5.60 per hand.
Essential Poker Math Pdf
What this means is if your opponent is bluffing or has a weaker hand just
four times out of 100 or more, calling is a positive expectation situation. Four
times out of 100 is only 4%. You’ll win at least 4% of the time in this
situation.
four times out of 100 or more, calling is a positive expectation situation. Four
times out of 100 is only 4%. You’ll win at least 4% of the time in this
situation.
Essential Poker Math
The numbers get closer the more your opponent bets on the river, and the
closer the numbers get the more you’re going to need to use what you know about
your opponent to determine if a situation is positive or not.
closer the numbers get the more you’re going to need to use what you know about
your opponent to determine if a situation is positive or not.
Start looking at every decision you make at the Texas holdem tables in terms
of positive and negative expectation.It’s hard at first, but the more you
practice the better you’ll get at predicting if a situation offers positive
expectation.
of positive and negative expectation.It’s hard at first, but the more you
practice the better you’ll get at predicting if a situation offers positive
expectation.
Summary
Texas holdem math is often the only thing that separates winning and losing
players. Take the time to learn the basics now so you can improve your game in
every way possible as you gain experience. This guide is the perfect place to
start for players of every experience level.
players. Take the time to learn the basics now so you can improve your game in
every way possible as you gain experience. This guide is the perfect place to
start for players of every experience level.